Don't
play this way, period: Don't go against the odds unless you have to
In this
hand, I was knocked out on the bubble (just outside the cash) with a
pair of K's. My opponent called my 3xbb raise with Q4d which
was a silly call in my opinion. However, on the flop came a
flush draw for my opponent and a set of K's for me. He, being
first to act calls the minimum bet of $150. So I simply raise
him to $300 trying not to scare him off, and extract more chips.
He calls, which at this point, he now has odds to chase his flush
(in retrospect, if I raised higher, he may have folded, or at least
he wouldn't have had odds).
The turn card doesn't give him the
flush, but does give him an inside straight draw in addition to his
flush draw, now giving him roughly a 24% chance of making his hand
(9 flush cards + 3 J's to make his straight, one J already counted
toward the flush, which converted is about a 24% chance of making
his hand). I push all in for another $2225 in chips, over
betting the pot which was currently at $1650. With my
all in bet, the pot is now $3875. For him to call, he has to
put in $2225 to win $3875, which is actually less then 2 to 1.
However, the chance of him making his hand are less then 4 to 1.
He calls, and makes his flush. Can I fault him for calling
after the turn? Actually, yes. You don't risk more chips
to win less chips, when you have less then a 25% chance of winning
the hand. You simply don't have the odds. Secondly,
never EVER, in your life, call a raise with Q4, suited or not; not
when you don't have to. But, this person did win the hand.
Would I play it again the same way? You better believe it.
