Poker Strategy: Poker Odds Made Simple

New Page 1

Private Videos

Member Login:

Private Videos

$59.95 Full Access

$5 Single Videos

Sample Video

Poker Videos

Poker Strategy

Poker Tips & Advice

Other

- Partner Links

- Contact Us

Poker Store

- RPL Products

Poker Strategy: Poker Odds Made Simple

There's no doubt that understanding poker odds is a critical element in succeeding in long term poker. Its also one of the most over looked areas of poker. Intermediate poker players do understand it, but usually don't know the exact numbers. They understand if the bet is too big, they simply lay it down. But pros know the numbers to a T and so should you.

First of all, I'm going to first explain the simplest method that I know of and the method that I actually use. I don't like to be at the table doing all sorts of math, so we'll try to use the KISS method (keep it simple stupid).

Your Odds Of Making Your Hand After The Flop

First of all, understanding your odds to make your hand after the flop. The simplest formula for this (in my opinion) is the 4 2 method (see video). It works like this. After the flop, determine your outs, then multiply them by 4. For example:

The flop is...

To make your straight, you need either a 5 or a 10, and we know there are 4 of each left in the deck, giving you 8 outs.

So, multiply 8 (outs) times 4, giving you roughly a 32% chance of making your hand.

Now the turn card comes:

You didn't catch it on the turn, so now we use the 2. We still have 8 outs, so now we multiply 8 x 2 giving us 16, or roughly a 16% chance of making our straight (note: you can also cut the first estimate of 32% in half if you like, since there's only one card left to come, your odds go down by half, which is why its a 2 now instead of a 4).

Determining If You Have Odds To Call A Bet

Now the tricky part. Based on the above scenario its rather easier explained then applied. But quite simply, if you have a 34% chance of making your hand, then mathematically you're not suppose to bet more then 34% of the pot. So if its your turn to bet and someone bets $30 into a $70 pot, making it a $100 pot, by math you are suppose to call because the $30 (which is 30% of the

$100 pot) is less then the 34% chance of you making your hand. So the odds are in your favor.

However, lets say that same person (same scenario as above, after the flop) bets the pot ($100, making it $200). Now you have to put in $100 to win $200, giving you 2 to 1 odds, which means you're betting 50% of the pot, which is over your odds to make your hand. Now you are suppose to fold because you are simply betting more money (based on percentage) then you're expected to win (based on percentage).

* One important thing to understand though: When you are low stacked and facing elimination, your odds really are not the same. They're worse. Quite simply, when you are short stacked, you don't have equity to chase hands, so these rules don't apply.

Implied Odds

Implied odds are bets that you believe other players will put into the pot after you bet. So even though they're not in the pot yet, if you believe they will be, they can be taken into consideration when determining if you should bet. For example, if you know you don't have the odds to call a bet but if you believe players acting after you will call as well, your odds become justified. Implied odds are tricky and you really need to know your opponents when using them.

Notes:

You should keep in mind that the 4 2 method is not a 100% accurate, but they are close enough. If you want to get a bit more accurate, here are some changes you can make:

After The Flop

- If after the flop, you have 9 to 12 outs, still multiply your outs by 4 (as explained above), then subtract 1. For example, 9 outs (flush draw) x 4 = 36 - 1 = a 35% chance.

- If you have 13 through 16 outs after the flop, multiply by 4, then subtract 4. For instance, 13 x 4 = 52 - 4 = a 48% chance, when its precisely 48.1%.

After The Turn

After the turn, still use the outs multiplied by 2 unless you have 9 or more outs. If you have 9 or more outs, simply add add 2 for a more accurate number. For example: If you have a flush draw, or 9 outs, take 9 x 2 = 18 +2, = roughly a 20% chance of making your hand. The exact number is 19.6%.

Again, these specifics here (under Notes) really are not necessary. You're trying to get in the ball park of what you should bet and what you shouldn't. So don't worry about this section too much.

New Page 1

Best Poker Rooms

Full Tilt Poker - US Players welcome. Enter Bonus Code: REALPOKERLESSONS and get a 100% deposit match up to $600! Read Review

Cake Poker - US Players aloud, 100% Bonus up to $500! Million Dollar Freerolls.

PokerStars - US Players welcome, 100% to $50 First Deposit Bonus, plus $25 FREE! Download Software