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Betting The Correct Amount Depending On Your Opponent

Copyright © 2008, RealPokerLessons.com

I played an in-person poker tournament last night, over a 100 players and got knocked out number 23, just outside the money. And I really tried to analyze some of my mistakes that I made, which is something you should always be doing as well. Maybe not mistakes per se, but spots that I "could" have done something different, with the reason why. Here's a few of the plays I made last night that I now regret, or at least learned something from.

I limped into a hand with 77 in middle position, about 1/3 of the way through the tournament. Why didn't I raise? Because I had a 2 big stacks at my table that simply would not fold pre-flop to almost any raise, and I learned through playing with them for a few hours that if I simply limped in with my small pocket pair, I would be able to see the flop cheaply (At this point of the tournament, there was no reason to get too involved).
 
Anyway, a player moved all in behind me, which I knew there was a chance, but he didn't have many more chips, so I knew I would call if he did anyway (In these situations anyway, you know the player is usually going to have any A, usually A-rag, any 2 over cards, or possible a pair, but not likely, and you're likely ahead). But the point is, the reason I didn't raise pre-flop is because of the huge stacks at the poker table, one of them directly to my left. Yes, I'm likely ahead of him, but I was looking to hit a set, not try to make him fold.

Anyway, 3 other players call this guy's all in, so of course I call. The flop comes: 10-10-3, with 2 spades on the board. The first player (huge stack #2) checks, I check, and 2 other players check, while the all in of course can't do anything.  The turn is a 6, non-spade. The huge stack to my right checks again, so I'm thinking I have the best hand, unless of course the all in has the 10. So I bet about 1/4 to 1/3 of the pot, as a side pot. Two other players fold, and the huge stack to my right flat calls. I seen that he hesitated, which made me more confident. Understand, I paid close attention to him and the other big stack to try and get some tells from, and I was sure it was a sincere hesitation, like he really didn't want to call. This was also for about 10% to 15% of his stack. So he called. I totally put him on a flush draw since there was no straight draw on the flop, and I'd seen this player call ridiculous amounts to chase gut shots.
 
The river is a 9, non flush card. So the board shows no flush and no possible straight, only a set or boat, and I'm sure I'm ahead based on the action. He checks. I bet around 1/4 of the pot, which looks week but also looks like I'm just trying to get paid off. And that was my mistake. The guy moans out loud, scratches his head, thinks for a second, and then calls. He turns over pocket 8's to beat my pocket 77's. Understand also that if I win the side pot, if he folds or I win at showdown, I break even if the all in player wins. But I didn't.
 

The mistake I made

I had seen this player chase draws big time, way outside of his odds, so I put him on a draw during the hand, never a pair, based on the flop and his actions, i.e. check, calls. The mistake I made at the end of the hand was since I believed he missed his draw, I felt that any bet would make him go away, even a smaller one, and I was risking a lot of my stack as well. So I made a play that should only be made against a good player, by betting smaller. This totally looks like a value bet, like "if you have anything, you have to call." Because a good player will lay down his pocket 8's in this situation a lot of the times, while a bad player will think "I'm priced in." Understand, even this smaller bet was a lot of chips to his stack. But a better player also would have folded to the first bet when I bet almost 1/3 of the pot, with a player already all in. It just looks so much like "I don't care there's an all in player, my hand is strong, I'm betting."

The other move I made that could have been different in this hand was checking the flop. But I was just as scared of the flop as everyone, and I didn't have enough chips to fire a feeler bet either. When he checked again on the turn, I was sure I had the best.
 
In Conclusion

So here's the deal. Quite simply, you must make your plays against each player differently. If you think they're a donkey, you cannot bully them or try to make any type of advanced play against them; they simply don't understand. They don't see the picture you're painting. An example could be that you bet an amount that represents you hit your trips, with the two 10's on board. A bad player thinks "I have 2 pair, 8's and 10's, I can't fold." But a good player thinks "He's got trips." So I had already sized this guy up to be a donkey; my mistake was firing a "low" second barrel. If I had bet a lot, he might have folded based on his actions, but betting a small value bet was a mistake against him.